Thor vs Black Swan

THORChain Warior
4 min readApr 13, 2021

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Ta-ta-tata, it`s a final countdown! By the sound of fanfare, the last digits on the counter turn to zeros and https://thorswap.finance/ shows the Multichain Chaosnet is up and running:

All week the Runtards have been tweeting the hashtag #BRINGTHECHAOS and now Chaos is here. What’s in store for us?

  • fully transparent liquidity pools
  • the risk distribution among the anonymous owners of 99 nodes — to destroy the network, 97 of them would have to be attacked: even with 3 working nodes, Thorchain will survive. And the free spaces are ready to be taken by new applicants, because every 3 days the richest nodes are churned out and new ones are chosen to replace them.
  • absolutely permissionless: anyone can use Thorchain exchanges, connect a third-party blockchain, add liquidity to existing pools or start a new pool. There are no limits on investment size or time — your funds are always at your disposal.
  • resistance to price manipulation: thanks to one-directional pools where the second asset is always a Rune token, asset prices are always up to date. Arbitrage between pools evens out any misalignment in seconds.
  • always sufficient liquidity: slippage in the pools insures against pumps or dumps, and allows transactions to be made even with assets that are scarce.
  • rewards for participants: the bigger your share in the pool, the higher the percentage of exchange and block rewards you receive.
  • a decentralized asset allocation mechanism: there is no pool boss, exchange owner, network government or Thorchain lord who can restrict you. Your assets cannot be frozen, taken away or forced out of the pool. No one dares to prohibit you from getting rich.
  • and the sweetest part: direct exchanges between any blockchain, no wrapped tokens.

Five blockchains are currently active in Thorchain, including Bitcoin and Ether. Along with Ether, all erc20 tokens are also available. In theory, all of them. Because the system is designed to reward active pools and penalize passive ones. So unclaimed tokens will fly off the grid, freeing up resources for more valuable ones.

Eric Voorhees himself prophesies a bright future for Thorchain. According to him, something magnificent has just happened in the crypto world. We are seeing the birth of a new technology that can compare in terms of innovation to the emergence of Ether. And even Bitcoin itself. All this he offers to discuss with the leading developers of Thorchain live on air:

For a full breakdown of Voorhees’ vision for Thorchain, see the Cointhelegraph issue:

And one of Thorchain’s apologists, website designer Mehowbrains, is holding a launch-themed raffle for gold coins bearing the Rune logo:

On the news of the launch rune repeated ATH and almost broke the $13 mark. The price of the token will rise due to several factors. In addition to the technology itself, the price will be pushed up by the dwindling supply of bnb and erc20 versions of the token. Along with Chaosnet, ASGARDEX launches, where anyone can exchange tokens for a native version of Rune — THOR.RUNE.

GrassRoots Crypto, known for its instructions for Thorchain newcomers (and old-timers), has released clear instructions on how to use the ASGARDEX wallet and the exchange process for the native Rune.

The second factor affecting Rune prices will be the influx of liquidity from Bitcoin and Ether blockchains. Each dollar of value is secured by three dollars of safety, denominated in Rune tokens held in node accounts and pools.

Surprisingly enough, almost 10% of Rune’s entire circulation has still not been taken away from RuneVault, the site where Rune stacking rewards were available in the early stages of the project’s formation. How happy the owners of those tokens will be when they regain access to them.

As can be seen in the illustration above, the efficiency of SCCN has dropped to 50% of its effective level. This is because node owners are migrating to MCCN to be the first to provide stability there. And make money from it.

Gradually, this migration will lead to a migration of all activity to MCCN, but for now SCCN and bepswap continue to operate. The developers have also abandoned the idea of closing the exchange bridge between bnb and erc20 Rune for the duration of the migration, in order to reduce the possible costs to owners of migrating assets.

In the Battle of the Portfolios, Rune is among the top one-third, and had it not been for the Black Swan event, it would probably have been in the top 100. Black Swan: Bit-torrent tokens were burned in large numbers, increasing the value of the remaining ones; this brought portfolios with the BTT token to the top, making +1100% profit from the start of the battle.

To win, Rune needs to reach $31.6, or x3 of its current positions, in 18 days. A successful MCCN launch and early profits from early investors could well help overcome this level.

If we talk about Battle as a whole, however, only 13 portfolios showed negative profitability in this bull run. Which proves yet again: everything goes up in a bull market. But in the long term, only investors in fundamental projects win. Such as Thorchain.

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